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DVS 33 vs Sportlust Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

DVS 33

PPG 2.07 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sportlust

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.4%0-23.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.5%1-111.1%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.3%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.8%3-15.6%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.6%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% — — —

Draw 23.7% — — —

Away win 25.7% — — —

Over 2.5 55.5% — — —

Over 3.5 33.1% — — —

BTTS 56.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.7%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1✓ 9.6%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DVS 331.7

Sportlust1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DVS 33 · PPG 2.07

SPORTLUST · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

DVS 33 (H) 50.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sportlust (A) 25.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

DVS 33 face Sportlust in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DVS 33 a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Sportlust 26%, so DVS 33 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for DVS 33 and 1.2 for Sportlust (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DVS 33 are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.33 for Sportlust. This match finished 2-1.

DVS 33 vs Sportlust Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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