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Darmstadt B vs Marburg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Hessen - 29 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Darmstadt B

PPG 1.00 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Marburg

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.4%0-23.2%0-32.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-03.7%1-17.1%1-26.9%1-34.4%1-4+3.3%2 2-03.9%2-17.5%2-27.3%2-34.7%2-4+3.5%3 3-02.8%3-15.3%3-25.2%3-33.3%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.6%4+-24.5%4+-32.9%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% — — —

Draw 20.5% — — —

Away win 36.2% — — —

Over 2.5 77.0% — — —

Over 3.5 57.7% — — —

BTTS 75.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob75.3%

H 43% / xG 2.1-1.9 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 75%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.5%

#2 2–2 7.3%

#3 1–1 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Darmstadt B2.1

Marburg1.9

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.0% · O3.5 PROB 57.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DARMSTADT B · PPG 1.00

MARBURG · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Darmstadt B (H) 43.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Marburg (A) 36.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Darmstadt B face Marburg in Germany - Oberliga - Hessen on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Darmstadt B a 43% chance, the draw 21% and Marburg 36%, so Darmstadt B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Darmstadt B and 1.9 for Marburg (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 75% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Darmstadt B are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.07 for Marburg. This match finished 4-0.

Darmstadt B vs Marburg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Hessen

Match Preview & Prediction

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