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Lyon vs Auxerre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Lyon

PPG 2.21 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Auxerre

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+20.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-14.2%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.2%1-18.2%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.8%2-18.0%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.0%3-15.2%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-14.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.0% 60.6% 1.65 +20.4%

Draw 19.1% 26.3% 3.80 -27.4%

Away win 8.0% 20.0% 5.00 -60.0%

Over 2.5 43.8% 54.6% 1.83 -19.9%

Over 3.5 22.8% 32.3% 3.10 -29.3%

BTTS 32.4% 56.5% 1.77 -42.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -5.5%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob32.4%

H 73% / xG 2.0-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.2%

#2 2–0 16.8%

#3 3–0 11.0%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 1–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lyon2.0

Auxerre0.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.8% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LYON · PPG 2.21

AUXERRE · PPG 0.60

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.21), Away POOR (0.60) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Lyon (H) 73.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV +20.4%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -27.4%

Auxerre (A) 8.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -60.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lyon face Auxerre in France - Ligue 1 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lyon a 73% chance, the draw 19% and Auxerre 8%, so Lyon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lyon and 0.5 for Auxerre (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lyon are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 0.60 for Auxerre. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Lyon vs Auxerre Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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