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Korona Kielce vs Katowice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:45

Korona Kielce

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Katowice

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDD

// Model verdict

Home 48% chance

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+22.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.3%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.7%1-111.1%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.8%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.6%3-15.8%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.8%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 44.4% 2.25 +22.6%

Draw 23.4% 28.6% 3.50 -18.1%

Away win 22.1% 34.0% 2.94 -35.0%

Over 2.5 53.0% 58.8% 1.70 -9.9%

Over 3.5 30.8% 35.7% 2.80 -13.8%

BTTS 53.4% 63.7% 1.57 -16.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.4%

H 55% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.1%

#2 1–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Korona Kielce1.8

Katowice1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KORONA KIELCE · PPG 1.50

KATOWICE · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Korona Kielce (H) 54.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +22.6%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -18.1%

Katowice (A) 22.1%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -35.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Korona Kielce face Katowice in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Korona Kielce a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Katowice 22%, so Korona Kielce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Korona Kielce and 1.0 for Katowice (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Korona Kielce are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Katowice. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Korona Kielce vs Katowice Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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