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Genemuiden vs Urk Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:30

Genemuiden

PPG 1.73 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Urk

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.7%0-20.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.2%1 1-01.6%1-12.6%1-22.1%1-31.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-03.0%2-15.0%2-24.1%2-32.2%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.9%3-16.4%3-25.3%3-32.9%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-010.5%4+-117.2%4+-214.1%4+-37.7%4+-4+4.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.0% — — —

Draw 11.5% — — —

Away win 11.5% — — —

Over 2.5 91.2% — — —

Over 3.5 80.0% — — —

BTTS 79.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 81%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob79.0%

H 77% / xG 3.9-1.6 / O2.5 91% / BTTS 79%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.4%

#2 4–1 6.2%

#3 3–2 5.3%

#4 4–2 5.1%

#5 2–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Genemuiden3.9

Urk1.6

COMBINED 5.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 91.2% · O3.5 PROB 80.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GENEMUIDEN · PPG 1.73

URK · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.73), Away POOR (0.79) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Genemuiden (H) 77.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 11.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Urk (A) 11.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Genemuiden face Urk in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Genemuiden a 77% chance, the draw 12% and Urk 12%, so Genemuiden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Genemuiden and 1.6 for Urk (5.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 91% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 79% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Genemuiden are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.79 for Urk. This match finished 3-0.

Genemuiden vs Urk Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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