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Excelsior 31 vs Harkemase Boys Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:30

Excelsior 31

PPG 1.13 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Harkemase Boys

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.13) vs Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-19.7%0-28.7%0-35.2%0-4+3.5%1 1-06.1%1-110.9%1-29.8%1-35.9%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.4%2-16.1%2-25.5%2-33.3%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.3%3-12.3%3-22.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% — — —

Draw 23.2% — — —

Away win 53.3% — — —

Over 2.5 55.8% — — —

Over 3.5 33.4% — — —

BTTS 56.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob56.2%

A 53% / xG 1.1-1.8 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–1✓ 9.7%

#4 0–2 8.7%

#5 2–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Excelsior 311.1

Harkemase Boys1.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

EXCELSIOR 31 · PPG 1.13

HARKEMASE BOYS · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.13) vs Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Excelsior 31 (H) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Harkemase Boys (A) 53.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Excelsior 31 face Harkemase Boys in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Excelsior 31 a 24% chance, the draw 23% and Harkemase Boys 53%, so Harkemase Boys are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Excelsior 31 and 1.8 for Harkemase Boys (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Excelsior 31 are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.47 for Harkemase Boys. This match finished 0-1.

Excelsior 31 vs Harkemase Boys Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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