Today / Turkey - 2. Lig / Somaspor vs K. Istiklalspor

Somaspor vs K. Istiklalspor Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Kırmızı - 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Somaspor

PPG 1.06 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

K. Istiklalspor

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-16.2%0-29.0%0-38.8%0-4+13.3%1 1-02.0%1-15.7%1-28.4%1-38.2%1-4+12.4%2 2-00.9%2-12.7%2-23.9%2-33.8%2-4+5.8%3 3-00.3%3-10.8%3-21.2%3-31.2%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 8.9% — — —

Draw 13.1% — — —

Away win 78.0% — — —

Over 2.5 74.1% — — —

Over 3.5 53.9% — — —

BTTS 57.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -56.6%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob57.3%

A 78% / xG 0.9-2.9 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.0%

#2 0–3 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 1–3 8.2%

#5 0–4 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Somaspor0.9

K. Istiklalspor2.9

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.1% · O3.5 PROB 53.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SOMASPOR · PPG 1.06

K. ISTIKLALSPOR · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Somaspor (H) 8.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 13.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

K. Istiklalspor (A) 78.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Somaspor face K. Istiklalspor in Turkey - 2. Lig on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Somaspor a 9% chance, the draw 13% and K. Istiklalspor 78%, so K. Istiklalspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Somaspor and 2.9 for K. Istiklalspor (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Somaspor are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.25 for K. Istiklalspor. This match finished 2-3.

Somaspor vs K. Istiklalspor Prediction— Turkey - 2. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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