Today / Borneo vs Semen Padang

Borneo vs Semen Padang Prediction

Saturday, April 25, 2026

Borneo

PPG 2.64 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Semen Padang

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.64), Away POOR (0.57) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-10.8%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.4%1-12.8%1-20.6%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.5%2-15.0%2-21.1%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.7%3-16.0%3-21.3%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-031.1%4+-113.7%4+-23.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 92.2% — — —

Draw 5.9% — — —

Away win 1.9% — — —

Over 2.5 76.6% — — —

Over 3.5 57.2% — — —

BTTS 34.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 90%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob34.5%

H 92% / xG 3.6-0.4 / O2.5 77% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0✓ 13.7%

#2 4–0 12.3%

#3 2–0 11.5%

#4 5–0 8.8%

#5 1–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Borneo3.6

Semen Padang0.4

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.6% · O3.5 PROB 57.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BORNEO · PPG 2.64

SEMEN PADANG · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.64), Away POOR (0.57) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Borneo (H) 92.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 5.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Semen Padang (A) 1.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Borneo face Semen Padang on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Borneo a 92% chance, the draw 6% and Semen Padang 2%, so Borneo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Borneo and 0.4 for Semen Padang (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Borneo are averaging 2.64 points per game versus 0.57 for Semen Padang. This match finished 3-0.

Borneo vs Semen Padang Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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