Today / Friedberg vs Hunfelder SV

Friedberg vs Hunfelder SV Prediction

Saturday, April 25, 2026

Friedberg
PPG 1.79 · HOME
1 – 3
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Hunfelder SV
PPG 1.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-15.4%0-25.6%0-33.9%0-4+3.3%1 1-04.0%1-18.4%1-28.8%1-36.1%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.2%2-16.6%2-26.9%2-34.8%2-4+4.1%3 3-01.7%3-13.5%3-23.6%3-32.5%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.9%4+-22.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 29.1%
Draw 21.1%
Away win 49.8%
Over 2.5 70.8%
Over 3.5 49.8%
BTTS 69.4%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE
✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE
xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob69.4%

A 50% / xG 1.6-2.1 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.8%
#2 1–1 8.4%
#3 2–2 6.9%
#4 2–1 6.6%
#5 1–3 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Friedberg1.6
Hunfelder SV2.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.8% · O3.5 PROB 49.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FRIEDBERG · PPG 1.79

HUNFELDER SV · PPG 1.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.79), Away GOOD (1.79)

Win probability 1X2

Friedberg (H) 29.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 21.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Hunfelder SV (A) 49.8%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Friedberg face Hunfelder SV on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Friedberg a 29% chance, the draw 21% and Hunfelder SV 50%, so Hunfelder SV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Friedberg and 2.1 for Hunfelder SV (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Friedberg are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.79 for Hunfelder SV. This match finished 1-3.

PredictVantage

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