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Fehérvár FC vs Diosgyori VTK Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Matchday 7 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:30

Fehérvár FC

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

UPCOMING

Diosgyori VTK

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 53% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+25.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.5%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.9%1-19.5%1-25.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.5%3-16.9%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-15.9%4+-23.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.2% 45.5% 2.20 +21.4%

Draw 21.8% 30.8% 3.25 -17.5%

Away win 23.0% 35.7% 2.80 -21.4%

Over 2.5 61.1% 48.8% 2.05 +25.3%

Over 3.5 38.5% 29.9% 3.34 +28.6%

BTTS 59.0% 58.5% 1.71 +0.9%

Home O1.5 60.2% 43.5% 2.30 +38.5%

Away O1.5 32.5% 38.9% 2.57 -16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 14.6%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.0%

H 55% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 1–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fehérvár FC2.1

Diosgyori VTK1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FEHÉRVÁR FC · PPG 1.70

DIOSGYORI VTK · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fehérvár FC (H) 55.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +21.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -17.5%

Diosgyori VTK (A) 23.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fehérvár FC face Diosgyori VTK in Hungary - NB II on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fehérvár FC a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Diosgyori VTK 23%, so Fehérvár FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Fehérvár FC and 1.1 for Diosgyori VTK (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fehérvár FC are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.31 for Diosgyori VTK. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +90.8%.

Fehérvár FC vs Diosgyori VTK Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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