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Spartak Pleven vs Hebar 1918 Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 8 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 16:00

Spartak Pleven

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

UPCOMING

Hebar 1918

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-16.0%0-24.6%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.7%1-110.3%1-27.8%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.8%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.3%3-15.0%3-23.8%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.1%4+-22.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 38.5% 2.60 -0.7%

Draw 23.2% 30.8% 3.25 -14.8%

Away win 38.7% 42.0% 2.38 -7.9%

Over 2.5 61.3% 52.6% 1.90 +16.5%

Over 3.5 39.4% 31.8% 3.14 +23.7%

BTTS 61.5% 59.2% 1.69 +3.9%

Home O1.5 49.9% 42.9% 2.33 +16.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 45.0% 2.22 +6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

A 39% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 7.8%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Pleven1.7

Hebar 19181.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK PLEVEN · PPG 1.29

HEBAR 1918 · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Pleven (H) 38.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -0.7%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.8%

Hebar 1918 (A) 38.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Pleven face Hebar 1918 in Bulgaria - Second League on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Pleven a 38% chance, the draw 23% and Hebar 1918 39%, so Hebar 1918 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Spartak Pleven and 1.5 for Hebar 1918 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Pleven are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.23 for Hebar 1918. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.7%.

Spartak Pleven vs Hebar 1918 Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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