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Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs CSKA Sofia II Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLDL

UPCOMING

CSKA Sofia II

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.9%0-25.2%0-32.6%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.1%1-110.8%1-28.2%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.5%2-26.5%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.0%3-14.5%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.5%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% 52.1% 1.92 -28.2%

Draw 23.7% 28.6% 3.50 -10.2%

Away win 38.9% 30.1% 3.32 +29.1%

Over 2.5 61.4% 60.6% 1.65 +1.3%

Over 3.5 39.8% 36.4% 2.75 +9.4%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 47.1% 54.6% 1.83 -13.8%

Away O1.5 47.6% 38.5% 2.60 +23.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

A 39% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 0–1 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Etar Veliko Tarnovo1.6

CSKA Sofia II1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ETAR VELIKO TARNOVO · PPG 1.79

CSKA SOFIA II · PPG 1.57

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (H) 37.4%

ODDS 1.92 · IMPLIED 52.1% EV -28.2%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.2%

CSKA Sofia II (A) 38.9%

ODDS 3.32 · IMPLIED 30.1% EV +29.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Etar Veliko Tarnovo face CSKA Sofia II in Bulgaria - Second League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Etar Veliko Tarnovo a 37% chance, the draw 24% and CSKA Sofia II 39%, so CSKA Sofia II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Etar Veliko Tarnovo and 1.5 for CSKA Sofia II (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Etar Veliko Tarnovo are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.57 for CSKA Sofia II. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +23.8%.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs CSKA Sofia II Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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