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Fratria vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 8 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 15:00

Fratria

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWD

UPCOMING

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-19.4%0-23.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.8%1-112.2%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.6%2-18.0%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.0%3-13.4%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 61.7% 1.62 -23.7%

Draw 28.3% 28.6% 3.50 -0.6%

Away win 24.6% 22.2% 4.50 +6.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 50.0% 2.00 -14.6%

Over 3.5 20.9% 29.2% 3.42 -17.1%

BTTS 48.0% 52.4% 1.91 -8.3%

Home O1.5 38.4% 53.8% 1.86 -28.6%

Away O1.5 18.8% 24.7% 4.05 -14.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.8%

#2 0–0 13.7%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 11.6%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fratria1.3

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FRATRIA · PPG 2.10

CHERNOMORETS 1919 BURGAS · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fratria (H) 47.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -23.7%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.6%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (A) 24.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fratria face Chernomorets 1919 Burgas in Bulgaria - Second League on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fratria a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 25%, so Fratria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Fratria and 0.7 for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fratria are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.23 for Chernomorets 1919 Burgas.

Fratria vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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