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Sportist Svoge vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 8 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 14:00

Sportist Svoge

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

UPCOMING

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-110.6%0-24.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.8%1-113.0%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.7%2-17.9%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.9%3-13.2%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 55.6% 1.80 -20.6%

Draw 27.5% 30.8% 3.25 -6.4%

Away win 28.4% 25.6% 3.90 +6.5%

Over 2.5 42.7% 45.5% 2.20 -6.1%

Over 3.5 20.9% 25.8% 3.88 -11.3%

BTTS 48.0% 51.8% 1.93 -7.4%

Home O1.5 33.6% 48.1% 2.08 -30.1%

Away O1.5 23.5% 26.7% 3.75 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.8%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 13.0%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 2–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportist Svoge1.2

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIST SVOGE · PPG 1.32

LOKOMOTIV G. ORYAHOVITSA · PPG 1.08

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 2.04 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sportist Svoge (H) 44.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -20.6%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.4%

Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (A) 28.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportist Svoge face Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa in Bulgaria - Second League on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportist Svoge a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 28%, so Sportist Svoge are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sportist Svoge and 0.8 for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportist Svoge are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.08 for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.9%.

Sportist Svoge vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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