Today / Bulgaria - Second League / Dobrudzha vs Beroe

Dobrudzha vs Beroe Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

Dobrudzha

PPG 1.39 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

UPCOMING

Beroe

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-19.7%0-24.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.0%1-112.9%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.6%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.8%3-13.8%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% 45.0% 2.22 -11.0%

Draw 26.3% 30.8% 3.25 -8.7%

Away win 33.6% 35.3% 2.83 -4.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 52.4% 1.91 -3.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.3% 3.30 -3.2%

BTTS 51.8% 57.8% 1.73 -10.4%

Home O1.5 38.9% 45.5% 2.20 -14.4%

Away O1.5 30.1% 38.0% 2.63 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.8%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 0–1 9.7%

#4 0–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dobrudzha1.3

Beroe1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DOBRUDZHA · PPG 1.39

BEROE · PPG 1.06

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 2.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dobrudzha (H) 40.1%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -11.0%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.7%

Beroe (A) 33.6%

ODDS 2.83 · IMPLIED 35.3% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dobrudzha face Beroe in Bulgaria - Second League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dobrudzha a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Beroe 34%, so Dobrudzha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Dobrudzha and 1.0 for Beroe (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dobrudzha are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.06 for Beroe.

Dobrudzha vs Beroe Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bulgaria - Second League Predictions