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Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Ludogorets II Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Matchday 8 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 16:00

Pirin Blagoevgrad

PPG 0.91 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

UPCOMING

Ludogorets II

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-112.1%0-28.1%0-33.6%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.6%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.1%2-16.9%2-24.6%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.8%3-12.4%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 31.1% 3.22 -4.4%

Draw 24.5% 30.3% 3.30 -11.5%

Away win 46.7% 50.8% 1.97 -8.0%

Over 2.5 50.6% 52.4% 1.91 -3.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.3% 3.30 -3.2%

BTTS 52.9% 57.8% 1.73 -8.5%

Home O1.5 30.8% 34.7% 2.88 -11.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 50.0% 2.00 -15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -20.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

A 47% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 12.1%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 0–2 8.1%

#5 0–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pirin Blagoevgrad1.1

Ludogorets II1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PIRIN BLAGOEVGRAD · PPG 0.91

LUDOGORETS II · PPG 1.03

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.27, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pirin Blagoevgrad (H) 28.8%

ODDS 3.22 · IMPLIED 31.1% EV -4.4%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.5%

Ludogorets II (A) 46.7%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pirin Blagoevgrad face Ludogorets II in Bulgaria - Second League on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pirin Blagoevgrad a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Ludogorets II 47%, so Ludogorets II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Pirin Blagoevgrad and 1.3 for Ludogorets II (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pirin Blagoevgrad are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 1.03 for Ludogorets II.

Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Ludogorets II Prediction— Bulgaria - Second League

Match Preview & Prediction

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