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Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Matchday 30 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 15:45

Hegelmann Litauen

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDD

UPCOMING

Panevėžys

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-17.9%0-24.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.2%1-112.1%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.7%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 38.2% 2.62 +18.9%

Draw 24.5% 34.5% 2.90 -17.4%

Away win 30.1% 40.0% 2.50 -24.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 51.3% 1.95 +4.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.4% 3.40 +7.4%

BTTS 54.2% 58.8% 1.70 -7.9%

Home O1.5 41.2% 40.0% 2.50 +3.0%

Away O1.5 32.9% 42.0% 2.38 -21.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -25.8%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.2%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hegelmann Litauen1.5

Panevėžys1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HEGELMANN LITAUEN · PPG 1.07

PANEVĖŽYS · PPG 0.86

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hegelmann Litauen (H) 45.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +18.9%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.4%

Panevėžys (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hegelmann Litauen face Panevėžys in Lithuania - A Lyga on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hegelmann Litauen a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Panevėžys 30%, so Hegelmann Litauen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hegelmann Litauen and 1.1 for Panevėžys (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hegelmann Litauen are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.86 for Panevėžys. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +16.5%.

Hegelmann Litauen vs Panevėžys Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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