Today / SSVg Velbert vs FC Koln B

SSVg Velbert vs FC Koln B Prediction

Saturday, April 25, 2026

SSVg Velbert
PPG 0.33 · HOME
3 – 3
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
FC Koln B
PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-17.2%0-27.8%0-35.6%0-4+5.0%1 1-04.1%1-18.9%1-29.7%1-37.0%1-4+6.2%2 2-02.6%2-15.5%2-26.0%2-34.3%2-4+3.9%3 3-01.1%3-12.3%3-22.5%3-31.8%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 21.3%
Draw 20.4%
Away win 58.4%
Over 2.5 66.1%
Over 3.5 44.2%
BTTS 62.9%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 3-3
xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob62.9%

A 58% / xG 1.2-2.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.7%
#2 1–1 8.9%
#3 0–2 7.8%
#4 0–1 7.2%
#5 1–3 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SSVg Velbert1.2
FC Koln B2.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SSVG VELBERT · PPG 0.33

FC KOLN B · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.14) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

SSVg Velbert (H) 21.3%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 20.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
FC Koln B (A) 58.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SSVg Velbert face FC Koln B on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SSVg Velbert a 21% chance, the draw 20% and FC Koln B 58%, so FC Koln B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for SSVg Velbert and 2.2 for FC Koln B (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SSVg Velbert are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.14 for FC Koln B. This match finished 3-3.

PredictVantage

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