Today / Honduras - Liga Nacional / Juticalpa vs Génesis

Juticalpa vs Génesis Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 01:30

Juticalpa

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Génesis

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-19.1%0-27.0%0-33.6%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.5%1-111.7%1-29.1%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.9%2-17.5%2-25.8%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.1%3-13.2%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 27.8% 3.60 +10.9%

Draw 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Away win 45.0% 54.1% 1.85 -16.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 52.6% 1.90 +2.2%

Over 3.5 34.2% 31.8% 3.14 +7.4%

BTTS 56.3% 57.1% 1.75 -1.5%

Home O1.5 38.4% 31.7% 3.15 +21.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 51.8% 1.93 -7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob56.3%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–1 9.1%

#4 2–1 7.5%

#5 0–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juticalpa1.3

Génesis1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.2%

Form & verdict PPG

JUTICALPA · PPG 1.17

GÉNESIS · PPG 1.01

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.26 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Juticalpa (H) 30.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +10.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

Génesis (A) 45.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juticalpa face Génesis in Honduras - Liga Nacional on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juticalpa a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Génesis 45%, so Génesis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Juticalpa and 1.5 for Génesis (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juticalpa are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.01 for Génesis. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +21.0%.

Juticalpa vs Génesis Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Honduras - Liga Nacional Predictions