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Olancho vs CD Olimpia Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 23:15

Olancho

PPG 1.84 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

CD Olimpia

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-19.2%0-26.1%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.3%1-112.4%1-28.2%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.2%2-18.3%2-25.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.8%3-13.7%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 33.3% 3.00 +8.3%

Draw 26.7% 30.3% 3.30 -7.1%

Away win 37.1% 47.6% 2.10 -22.1%

Over 2.5 53.6% 51.3% 1.95 +4.5%

Over 3.5 30.9% 31.3% 3.20 -1.1%

BTTS 54.7% 58.1% 1.72 -5.9%

Home O1.5 37.8% 36.2% 2.76 +4.3%

Away O1.5 41.2% 46.5% 2.15 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–0 6.9%

#5 0–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olancho1.3

CD Olimpia1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

OLANCHO · PPG 1.84

CD OLIMPIA · PPG 1.89

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Olancho (H) 36.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +8.3%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.1%

CD Olimpia (A) 37.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Olancho face CD Olimpia in Honduras - Liga Nacional on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olancho a 36% chance, the draw 27% and CD Olimpia 37%, so CD Olimpia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Olancho and 1.3 for CD Olimpia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olancho are averaging 1.84 points per game versus 1.89 for CD Olimpia. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Olancho vs CD Olimpia Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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