Today / Honduras - Liga Nacional / Génesis vs CD Marathon

Génesis vs CD Marathon Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 21:00

Génesis

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

CD Marathon

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-110.5%0-25.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.6%1-113.1%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.9%2-18.3%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.3%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 33.3% 3.00 +26.6%

Draw 27.9% 32.3% 3.10 -8.1%

Away win 30.0% 45.5% 2.20 -34.0%

Over 2.5 45.9% 44.4% 2.25 +3.3%

Over 3.5 27.3% 23.3% 4.30 +10.4%

BTTS 52.1% 52.4% 1.91 -0.5%

Home O1.5 36.5% 34.1% 2.93 +7.0%

Away O1.5 32.6% 36.8% 2.72 -11.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.1%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Génesis1.3

CD Marathon1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GÉNESIS · PPG 1.72

CD MARATHON · PPG 1.54

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Génesis (H) 42.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +26.6%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.1%

CD Marathon (A) 30.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -34.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Génesis face CD Marathon in Honduras - Liga Nacional on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Génesis a 42% chance, the draw 28% and CD Marathon 30%, so Génesis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Génesis and 1.0 for CD Marathon (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Génesis are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.54 for CD Marathon. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Génesis vs CD Marathon Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Honduras - Liga Nacional Predictions