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Atlético Choloma vs Platense FC Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 01:30

Atlético Choloma

PPG 1.03 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Platense FC

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-18.0%0-25.1%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.4%1-112.0%1-27.6%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-18.9%2-25.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.5%3-14.4%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 44.4% 2.25 +2.4%

Draw 25.3% 31.3% 3.20 -11.4%

Away win 29.3% 35.7% 2.80 -10.8%

Over 2.5 53.9% 51.3% 1.95 +5.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 34.2% 2.92 -7.7%

BTTS 54.7% 59.9% 1.67 -8.6%

Home O1.5 40.0% 47.4% 2.11 -15.6%

Away O1.5 37.3% 39.4% 2.54 -5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–0 9.4%

#4 2–0✓ 7.0%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Choloma1.5

Platense FC1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO CHOLOMA · PPG 1.03

PLATENSE FC · PPG 0.85

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Choloma (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +2.4%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -11.4%

Platense FC (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Choloma face Platense FC in Honduras - Liga Nacional on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Choloma a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Platense FC 29%, so Atlético Choloma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Atlético Choloma and 1.3 for Platense FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Choloma are averaging 1.03 points per game versus 0.85 for Platense FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Atlético Choloma vs Platense FC Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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