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CD Olimpia vs Platense FC Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 01:00

CD Olimpia

PPG 2.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Platense FC

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-13.6%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.1%1-18.3%1-23.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.6%2-19.6%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-17.4%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-17.4%4+-23.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.4% 74.1% 1.35 -11.7%

Draw 19.3% 22.7% 4.40 -9.0%

Away win 15.3% 13.3% 7.50 +8.8%

Over 2.5 60.9% 58.8% 1.70 +3.5%

Over 3.5 37.7% 36.4% 2.75 +3.7%

BTTS 53.6% 51.8% 1.93 +3.5%

Home O1.5 66.3% 69.0% 1.45 -3.9%

Away O1.5 23.5% 22.2% 4.50 +3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.6%

H 65% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.6%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 3–0 9.0%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CD Olimpia2.3

Platense FC0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CD OLIMPIA · PPG 2.30

PLATENSE FC · PPG 0.73

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.49 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CD Olimpia (H) 65.4%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -11.7%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -9.0%

Platense FC (A) 15.3%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

CD Olimpia face Platense FC in Honduras - Liga Nacional on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CD Olimpia a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Platense FC 15%, so CD Olimpia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for CD Olimpia and 0.8 for Platense FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CD Olimpia are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 0.73 for Platense FC. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +19.0%.

CD Olimpia vs Platense FC Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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