Today / Honduras - Liga Nacional / Juticalpa vs Lobos Upnfm

Juticalpa vs Lobos Upnfm Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 01:00

Juticalpa

PPG 0.91 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lobos Upnfm

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+12.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.5%0-24.9%0-32.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.0%1-110.6%1-28.0%1-34.1%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.7%2-18.7%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.1%3-14.7%3-23.6%3-31.8%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.8%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 33.3% 3.00 +20.9%

Draw 23.6% 29.9% 3.35 -12.6%

Away win 36.1% 46.5% 2.15 -22.4%

Over 2.5 62.3% 55.6% 1.80 +12.1%

Over 3.5 39.3% 33.3% 3.00 +17.9%

BTTS 62.8% 60.6% 1.65 +3.6%

Home O1.5 48.9% 39.2% 2.55 +24.7%

Away O1.5 46.8% 50.0% 2.00 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.8%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–0 5.7%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juticalpa1.6

Lobos Upnfm1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JUTICALPA · PPG 0.91

LOBOS UPNFM · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Juticalpa (H) 40.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +20.9%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -12.6%

Lobos Upnfm (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juticalpa face Lobos Upnfm in Honduras - Liga Nacional on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juticalpa a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Lobos Upnfm 36%, so Juticalpa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Juticalpa and 1.5 for Lobos Upnfm (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juticalpa are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 0.77 for Lobos Upnfm. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +24.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Juticalpa vs Lobos Upnfm Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

More Honduras - Liga Nacional Predictions