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CD Marathon vs Real Espana Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 21:00

CD Marathon

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Real Espana

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-111.1%0-25.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.3%1-113.3%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.6%2-17.9%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.4%3-13.2%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 43.5% 2.30 -6.4%

Draw 29.1% 32.3% 3.10 -5.9%

Away win 30.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 46.5% 2.15 -8.2%

Over 3.5 20.6% 25.6% 3.90 -11.8%

BTTS 47.6% 54.6% 1.83 -12.9%

Home O1.5 32.4% 41.7% 2.40 -22.2%

Away O1.5 24.9% 34.5% 2.90 -16.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.6%

H 41% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.3%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CD Marathon1.2

Real Espana0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CD MARATHON · PPG 2.10

REAL ESPANA · PPG 1.54

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 2.12 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CD Marathon (H) 40.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -6.4%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.9%

Real Espana (A) 30.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

CD Marathon face Real Espana in Honduras - Liga Nacional on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CD Marathon a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Real Espana 30%, so CD Marathon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for CD Marathon and 0.9 for Real Espana (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CD Marathon are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.54 for Real Espana. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 1-1.

CD Marathon vs Real Espana Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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