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CD Motagua vs Olancho Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Apertura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 01:30

CD Motagua

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Olancho

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-17.9%0-24.7%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.2%1-112.1%1-27.1%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.8%2-19.2%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.9%3-14.6%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% 57.8% 1.73 -21.5%

Draw 24.8% 26.3% 3.80 -3.5%

Away win 29.8% 25.6% 3.90 +9.7%

Over 2.5 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 40.0% 2.50 -21.3%

BTTS 54.9% 63.7% 1.57 -13.8%

Home O1.5 40.1% 60.6% 1.65 -33.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 37.0% 2.70 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.9%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1✓ 9.2%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 7.8%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CD Motagua1.5

Olancho1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CD MOTAGUA · PPG 1.58

OLANCHO · PPG 1.47

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CD Motagua (H) 45.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -21.5%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.5%

Olancho (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

CD Motagua face Olancho in Honduras - Liga Nacional on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CD Motagua a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Olancho 30%, so CD Motagua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for CD Motagua and 1.2 for Olancho (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CD Motagua are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.47 for Olancho. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 2-1.

CD Motagua vs Olancho Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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