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Real Espana vs Lobos Upnfm Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 23:15

Real Espana

PPG 2.05 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lobos Upnfm

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 70% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-13.9%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.0%1-18.7%1-23.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.0%3-17.1%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-16.6%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.6% 78.1% 1.28 -17.3%

Draw 20.2% 21.1% 4.75 -2.4%

Away win 15.1% 13.3% 7.50 +8.0%

Over 2.5 59.6% 59.9% 1.67 -0.5%

Over 3.5 36.4% 39.7% 2.52 -8.3%

BTTS 52.9% 47.8% 2.09 +10.6%

Home O1.5 66.3% 71.4% 1.40 -7.2%

Away O1.5 22.8% 15.9% 6.30 +26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 65% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Espana2.2

Lobos Upnfm0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL ESPANA · PPG 2.05

LOBOS UPNFM · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

70%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.43 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Real Espana (H) 64.6%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -17.3%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -2.4%

Lobos Upnfm (A) 15.1%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Espana face Lobos Upnfm in Honduras - Liga Nacional on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Espana a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Lobos Upnfm 15%, so Real Espana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Real Espana and 0.8 for Lobos Upnfm (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Espana are averaging 2.05 points per game versus 0.67 for Lobos Upnfm. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +26.2%.

Real Espana vs Lobos Upnfm Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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