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Atlético Choloma vs Olancho Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Apertura · Matchday 6 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 01:00

Atlético Choloma

PPG 1.31 · HOME

UPCOMING

Olancho

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-111.1%0-27.0%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.3%1-113.0%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.0%2-17.6%2-24.8%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.3%3-12.9%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 29.9% 3.35 +20.3%

Draw 27.7% 26.7% 3.75 +2.3%

Away win 36.4% 54.1% 1.85 -32.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 65.4% 1.53 -22.9%

Over 3.5 28.7% 42.6% 2.35 -19.5%

BTTS 52.9% 67.6% 1.48 -21.7%

Home O1.5 32.0% 43.5% 2.30 -26.4%

Away O1.5 36.8% 60.6% 1.65 -39.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 18%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Choloma1.2

Olancho1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO CHOLOMA · PPG 1.31

OLANCHO · PPG 1.28

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.10, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Choloma (H) 35.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +20.3%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +2.3%

Olancho (A) 36.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -32.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Choloma face Olancho in Honduras - Liga Nacional on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Choloma a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Olancho 36%, so Olancho are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atlético Choloma and 1.3 for Olancho (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Choloma are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.28 for Olancho. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.4%.

Atlético Choloma vs Olancho Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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