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Tigres UANL W vs Santos Laguna W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 6 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 00:06

Tigres UANL W

PPG 2.32 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

Santos Laguna W

PPG 0.97 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 78% chance

xG gap +2.29 for Home, form 2.32 vs 0.97 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-11.7%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.7%1-15.1%1-22.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.3%2-17.8%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.4%3-18.0%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-017.0%4+-113.0%4+-24.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.1% 96.2% 1.04 -20.9%

Draw 16.0% 6.7% 15.00 +84.0%

Away win 7.9% 3.4% 29.00 +77.5%

Over 2.5 68.4% 83.3% 1.20 -17.9%

Over 3.5 45.0% 66.2% 1.51 -32.0%

BTTS 52.9% 44.1% 2.27 +20.1%

Home O1.5 77.9% — — —

Away O1.5 20.9% 12.5% 8.00 +40.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 79%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 21%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 76% / xG 3.1-0.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 10.4%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 4–0 8.0%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tigres UANL W3.1

Santos Laguna W0.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TIGRES UANL W · PPG 2.32

SANTOS LAGUNA W · PPG 0.97

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

78%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.29 for Home, form 2.32 vs 0.97 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Tigres UANL W (H) 76.1%

ODDS 1.04 · IMPLIED 96.2% EV -20.9%

Draw 16.0%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +84.0%

Santos Laguna W (A) 7.9%

ODDS 29.00 · IMPLIED 3.4% EV +77.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tigres UANL W face Santos Laguna W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tigres UANL W a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Santos Laguna W 8%, so Tigres UANL W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Tigres UANL W and 0.8 for Santos Laguna W (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tigres UANL W are averaging 2.32 points per game versus 0.97 for Santos Laguna W. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +40.3%.

Tigres UANL W vs Santos Laguna W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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