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CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 01:00

CD Motagua

PPG 1.35 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lobos Upnfm

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.5%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.4%1-110.4%1-25.7%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.7%3-16.3%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.6%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 66.7% 1.50 -20.8%

Draw 23.0% 25.3% 3.95 -5.5%

Away win 24.2% 18.2% 5.50 +19.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 56.5% 1.77 +5.7%

Over 3.5 36.6% 33.9% 2.95 +8.0%

BTTS 57.2% 55.6% 1.80 +3.0%

Home O1.5 54.9% 62.5% 1.60 -12.2%

Away O1.5 35.6% 26.0% 3.85 +37.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.2%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CD Motagua1.9

Lobos Upnfm1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CD MOTAGUA · PPG 1.35

LOBOS UPNFM · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CD Motagua (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -20.8%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -5.5%

Lobos Upnfm (A) 24.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

CD Motagua face Lobos Upnfm in Honduras - Liga Nacional on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CD Motagua a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Lobos Upnfm 24%, so CD Motagua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for CD Motagua and 1.1 for Lobos Upnfm (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CD Motagua are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 0.90 for Lobos Upnfm. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +37.1%. This match finished 4-1.

CD Motagua vs Lobos Upnfm Prediction— Honduras - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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