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Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 23:00

Tapatío

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWD

UPCOMING

Leones Negros UDG

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+10.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.3%0-23.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.7%1-110.2%1-26.0%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.3%3-16.3%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.7%4+-22.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 44.4% 2.25 +12.0%

Draw 23.1% 30.8% 3.25 -14.9%

Away win 27.0% 36.4% 2.75 -15.4%

Over 2.5 61.6% 55.6% 1.80 +10.9%

Over 3.5 40.2% 36.0% 2.78 +11.8%

BTTS 61.5% 59.9% 1.67 +2.7%

Home O1.5 55.8% 49.0% 2.04 +13.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 41.2% 2.43 -19.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 35.0%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–2 6.0%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tapatío1.9

Leones Negros UDG1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TAPATÍO · PPG 1.90

LEONES NEGROS UDG · PPG 1.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tapatío (H) 49.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +12.0%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.9%

Leones Negros UDG (A) 27.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tapatío face Leones Negros UDG in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tapatío a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Leones Negros UDG 27%, so Tapatío are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Tapatío and 1.2 for Leones Negros UDG (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tapatío are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.78 for Leones Negros UDG. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +30.3%.

Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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