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Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 01:00

Monarcas

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLW

UPCOMING

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 66% chance

Model probability 65.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.1%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.7%1-18.9%1-23.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.7%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.5%3-17.1%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-16.4%4+-22.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 69.4% 1.44 -17.5%

Draw 21.3% 23.8% 4.20 -6.3%

Away win 21.4% 17.2% 5.80 +14.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 60.6% 1.65 -1.7%

Over 3.5 36.4% 40.7% 2.46 -10.5%

BTTS 52.9% 57.1% 1.75 -7.4%

Home O1.5 65.6% 66.7% 1.50 -1.6%

Away O1.5 23.9% 26.7% 3.74 -6.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 35.0%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 57% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–0 11.6%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monarcas2.2

Alebrijes de Oaxaca0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MONARCAS · PPG 1.89

ALEBRIJES DE OAXACA · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Monarcas (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -17.5%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.3%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca (A) 21.4%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monarcas face Alebrijes de Oaxaca in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monarcas a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca 21%, so Monarcas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Monarcas and 0.8 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monarcas are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.14 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca.

Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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