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CA La Paz vs Mineros de Zacatecas Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 03:00

CA La Paz

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDW

UPCOMING

Mineros de Zacatecas

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.6%0-22.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.6%1-18.3%1-25.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.5%2-19.5%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.8%3-17.3%3-24.6%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-17.1%4+-24.5%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 51.0% 1.96 +5.1%

Draw 21.8% 26.0% 3.85 -9.6%

Away win 24.6% 29.9% 3.35 -10.5%

Over 2.5 66.8% 66.7% 1.50 +0.2%

Over 3.5 44.9% 44.4% 2.25 +1.0%

BTTS 63.2% 69.4% 1.44 -9.0%

Home O1.5 66.3% 59.9% 1.67 +10.7%

Away O1.5 36.8% 44.4% 2.25 -17.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 26%

ROI 35.0%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 5.2%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 3–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CA La Paz2.3

Mineros de Zacatecas1.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CA LA PAZ · PPG 1.45

MINEROS DE ZACATECAS · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CA La Paz (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV +5.1%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.6%

Mineros de Zacatecas (A) 24.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

CA La Paz face Mineros de Zacatecas in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA La Paz a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Mineros de Zacatecas 25%, so CA La Paz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for CA La Paz and 1.3 for Mineros de Zacatecas (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA La Paz are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.98 for Mineros de Zacatecas. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +24.6%.

CA La Paz vs Mineros de Zacatecas Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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