Today / Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX / Tepatitlán vs Dorados

Tepatitlán vs Dorados Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 01:00

Tepatitlán

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

UPCOMING

Dorados

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+12.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.7%0-23.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.0%1-110.4%1-26.8%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.5%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.5%3-15.8%3-23.8%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.0%4+-22.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 45.9% 2.18 +1.1%

Draw 23.7% 27.8% 3.60 -8.8%

Away win 29.8% 33.3% 3.00 -6.4%

Over 2.5 62.7% 55.6% 1.80 +12.9%

Over 3.5 40.2% 33.3% 3.00 +20.6%

BTTS 61.5% 61.7% 1.62 -0.4%

Home O1.5 52.8% 48.8% 2.05 +8.2%

Away O1.5 39.7% 40.0% 2.50 -0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 32.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–0 7.3%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tepatitlán1.8

Dorados1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TEPATITLÁN · PPG 1.52

DORADOS · PPG 0.84

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tepatitlán (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +1.1%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.8%

Dorados (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tepatitlán face Dorados in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tepatitlán a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Dorados 30%, so Tepatitlán are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Tepatitlán and 1.3 for Dorados (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tepatitlán are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 0.84 for Dorados. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.6%.

Tepatitlán vs Dorados Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

More Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX Predictions