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CDS Tampico Madero vs Venados FC Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 01:00

CDS Tampico Madero

PPG 2.15 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

UPCOMING

Venados FC

PPG 0.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.6%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.4%1-19.5%1-24.8%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.8%3-16.9%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-15.8%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 57.1% 1.75 -3.8%

Draw 21.9% 27.8% 3.60 -12.7%

Away win 23.1% 27.0% 3.70 -8.7%

Over 2.5 63.0% 60.6% 1.65 +4.0%

Over 3.5 40.2% 40.7% 2.46 -1.1%

BTTS 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Home O1.5 60.2% 58.5% 1.71 +2.9%

Away O1.5 31.5% 37.9% 2.64 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 35.0%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.7%

H 55% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 1–2 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CDS Tampico Madero2.1

Venados FC1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CDS TAMPICO MADERO · PPG 2.15

VENADOS FC · PPG 0.68

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.07 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CDS Tampico Madero (H) 55.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -3.8%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.7%

Venados FC (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

CDS Tampico Madero face Venados FC in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CDS Tampico Madero a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Venados FC 23%, so CDS Tampico Madero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for CDS Tampico Madero and 1.0 for Venados FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CDS Tampico Madero are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 0.68 for Venados FC. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +8.6%.

CDS Tampico Madero vs Venados FC Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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