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Osnabruck vs Verl Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Osnabruck

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Verl

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+16.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.8%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.2%1-111.5%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.3%3-15.5%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 45.5% 2.20 +16.6%

Draw 24.1% 28.6% 3.50 -15.7%

Away win 22.9% 32.3% 3.10 -29.0%

Over 2.5 51.0% 58.8% 1.70 -13.3%

Over 3.5 28.9% 35.7% 2.80 -19.1%

BTTS 52.2% 63.7% 1.57 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.2%

H 53% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 2–1✓ 9.7%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osnabruck1.7

Verl1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

OSNABRUCK · PPG 2.00

VERL · PPG 1.41

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.41)

Win probability 1X2

Osnabruck (H) 53.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +16.6%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.7%

Verl (A) 22.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -29.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Osnabruck face Verl in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osnabruck a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Verl 23%, so Osnabruck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Osnabruck and 1.0 for Verl (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osnabruck are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.41 for Verl. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Osnabruck vs Verl Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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