Today / Germany - 3. Liga / Hoffenheim B vs FC Ingolstadt

Hoffenheim B vs FC Ingolstadt Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 35 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Hoffenheim B

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Ingolstadt

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 72% chance

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.3%0-23.9%0-32.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-04.6%1-18.3%1-27.5%1-34.5%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.5%2-18.0%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.9%3-15.2%3-24.7%3-32.8%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.9%4+-23.5%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 42.9% 2.33 -2.4%

Draw 21.5% 26.3% 3.80 -18.3%

Away win 36.6% 37.7% 2.65 -3.0%

Over 2.5 72.0% 71.4% 1.40 +0.8%

Over 3.5 51.3% 50.0% 2.00 +2.6%

BTTS 71.4% 75.2% 1.33 -5.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob71.4%

H 42% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hoffenheim B1.9

FC Ingolstadt1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 51.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HOFFENHEIM B · PPG 1.18

FC INGOLSTADT · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

72%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.18), Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Hoffenheim B (H) 41.9%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -2.4%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -18.3%

FC Ingolstadt (A) 36.6%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hoffenheim B face FC Ingolstadt in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hoffenheim B a 42% chance, the draw 22% and FC Ingolstadt 37%, so Hoffenheim B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Hoffenheim B and 1.8 for FC Ingolstadt (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hoffenheim B are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.18 for FC Ingolstadt. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 0-3.

Hoffenheim B vs FC Ingolstadt Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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