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Hansa Rostock vs Regensburg Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 35 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Hansa Rostock

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWW

2 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Regensburg

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLL

// Model verdict

Home 63% chance

Model probability 65.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.0%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.1%1-18.9%1-24.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.5%3-17.3%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-16.8%4+-23.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.6% 62.5% 1.60 +5.0%

Draw 19.1% 23.8% 4.20 -19.8%

Away win 15.4% 20.8% 4.80 -26.1%

Over 2.5 62.0% 65.4% 1.53 -5.1%

Over 3.5 39.7% 42.6% 2.35 -6.7%

BTTS 55.6% 64.5% 1.55 -13.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-5

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.6%

H 66% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 1–1 8.9%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hansa Rostock2.2

Regensburg1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HANSA ROSTOCK · PPG 1.71

REGENSBURG · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Hansa Rostock (H) 65.6%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV +5.0%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -19.8%

Regensburg (A) 15.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hansa Rostock face Regensburg in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hansa Rostock a 66% chance, the draw 19% and Regensburg 15%, so Hansa Rostock are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Hansa Rostock and 1.0 for Regensburg (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.94 for Regensburg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 2-5.

Hansa Rostock vs Regensburg Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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