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Petare FC vs Bolívar Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:30

Petare FC

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bolívar

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 51% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 49.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-111.1%0-25.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.5%1-113.3%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.7%2-17.9%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.5%3-13.2%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 54.1% 1.85 -18.8%

Draw 27.4% 31.3% 3.20 -7.4%

Away win 28.8% 26.3% 3.80 +5.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 42.6% 2.35 +18.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.3% 4.30 +14.1%

BTTS 52.9% 49.8% 2.01 +6.3%

Home O1.5 33.0% 45.0% 2.22 -26.7%

Away O1.5 26.1% 24.7% 4.05 +3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Petare FC1.2

Bolívar0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PETARE FC · PPG 2.20

BOLÍVAR · PPG 1.11

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

51%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.28, combined xG 2.11 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Petare FC (H) 43.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -18.8%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.4%

Bolívar (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Petare FC face Bolívar in Venezuela - Segunda División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Petare FC a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Bolívar 29%, so Petare FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Petare FC and 0.9 for Bolívar (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Petare FC are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.11 for Bolívar. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.4%.

Petare FC vs Bolívar Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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