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Monagas II vs Aragua FC Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:30

Monagas II

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aragua FC

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.2%0-112.1%0-24.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.2%1-112.8%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.6%2-16.8%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.4%3-12.4%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 58.8% 1.70 -28.3%

Draw 30.8% 30.3% 3.30 +1.6%

Away win 26.9% 22.2% 4.50 +12.6%

Over 2.5 38.8% 44.4% 2.25 -12.7%

Over 3.5 18.5% 24.4% 4.10 -14.5%

BTTS 47.6% 50.8% 1.97 -6.2%

Home O1.5 30.8% 47.4% 2.11 -35.0%

Away O1.5 18.8% 25.1% 3.98 -15.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.2%

#2 0–0 17.2%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–1 12.1%

#5 2–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monagas II1.1

Aragua FC0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MONAGAS II · PPG 2.00

ARAGUA FC · PPG 1.11

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.35, combined xG 1.76 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Monagas II (H) 42.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -28.3%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +1.6%

Aragua FC (A) 26.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monagas II face Aragua FC in Venezuela - Segunda División on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monagas II a 42% chance, the draw 31% and Aragua FC 27%, so Monagas II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Monagas II and 0.7 for Aragua FC (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monagas II are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.11 for Aragua FC.

Monagas II vs Aragua FC Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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