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Atletico el Vigia FC vs Club Atletico Barinas Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 26 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 19:30

Atletico el Vigia FC

PPG 1.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Club Atletico Barinas

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+19.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.4%0-23.0%0-31.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-04.2%1-17.4%1-26.6%1-33.9%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.6%2-18.1%2-27.2%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.3%3-15.9%3-25.2%3-33.1%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-15.3%4+-24.7%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 54.6% 1.83 -7.0%

Draw 20.5% 28.6% 3.50 -17.0%

Away win 28.6% 28.6% 3.50 +0.1%

Over 2.5 68.4% 57.1% 1.75 +19.7%

Over 3.5 49.4% 36.5% 2.74 +35.4%

BTTS 63.5% 61.0% 1.64 +4.1%

Home O1.5 65.6% 55.6% 1.80 +18.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 35.2% 2.84 +36.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 10.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.5%

H 51% / xG 2.2-1.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 3–1 5.9%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico el Vigia FC2.2

Club Atletico Barinas1.8

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO EL VIGIA FC · PPG 1.09

CLUB ATLETICO BARINAS · PPG 0.64

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico el Vigia FC (H) 50.8%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -7.0%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -17.0%

Club Atletico Barinas (A) 28.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico el Vigia FC face Club Atletico Barinas in Venezuela - Segunda División on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico el Vigia FC a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Club Atletico Barinas 29%, so Atletico el Vigia FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Atletico el Vigia FC and 1.8 for Club Atletico Barinas (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico el Vigia FC are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 0.64 for Club Atletico Barinas. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +47.3%.

Atletico el Vigia FC vs Club Atletico Barinas Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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