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Bolívar vs Atletico Avila FC Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

Bolívar

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

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2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Atletico Avila FC

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

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// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.2%0-19.1%0-22.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.6%1-110.7%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.2%2-16.3%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.2%3-12.5%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 66.7% 1.50 -20.9%

Draw 27.2% 27.8% 3.60 -1.3%

Away win 20.1% 18.2% 5.50 +6.3%

Over 2.5 34.3% 48.1% 2.08 -28.7%

Over 3.5 18.0% 29.2% 3.42 -23.1%

BTTS 42.6% 47.8% 2.09 -11.0%

Home O1.5 31.8% 58.1% 1.72 -45.3%

Away O1.5 15.1% 18.0% 5.55 -9.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 10.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob42.6%

H 53% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.6%

#2 0–0 19.2%

#3 2–0 13.2%

#4 0–1 9.1%

#5 1–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bolívar1.2

Atletico Avila FC0.5

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.3% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLÍVAR · PPG 1.89

ATLETICO AVILA FC · PPG 0.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bolívar (H) 52.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -20.9%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.3%

Atletico Avila FC (A) 20.1%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bolívar face Atletico Avila FC in Venezuela - Segunda División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bolívar a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Atletico Avila FC 20%, so Bolívar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bolívar and 0.5 for Atletico Avila FC (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bolívar are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.62 for Atletico Avila FC. This match finished 2-1.

Bolívar vs Atletico Avila FC Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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