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Puerto Cabello II vs Real Frontera Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:30

Puerto Cabello II

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Real Frontera

PPG 0.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-13.7%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.9%1-18.4%1-23.6%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.7%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.6%3-17.4%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-17.2%4+-23.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.8% 70.4% 1.42 -15.1%

Draw 22.0% 24.4% 4.10 -5.9%

Away win 18.2% 16.0% 6.25 +8.3%

Over 2.5 59.7% 57.1% 1.75 +4.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 36.5% 2.74 +0.6%

BTTS 52.7% 53.5% 1.87 -1.5%

Home O1.5 65.8% 65.4% 1.53 +0.7%

Away O1.5 24.0% 22.2% 4.50 +4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 10.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 60% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 3–0✓ 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puerto Cabello II2.3

Real Frontera0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PUERTO CABELLO II · PPG 1.36

REAL FRONTERA · PPG 0.30

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.43 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Puerto Cabello II (H) 59.8%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -15.1%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.9%

Real Frontera (A) 18.2%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puerto Cabello II face Real Frontera in Venezuela - Segunda División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puerto Cabello II a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Real Frontera 18%, so Puerto Cabello II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Puerto Cabello II and 0.9 for Real Frontera (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puerto Cabello II are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.30 for Real Frontera. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +5.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Puerto Cabello II vs Real Frontera Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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