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Petare FC vs Monagas II Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:30

Petare FC

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Monagas II

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-111.3%0-25.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.0%1-113.3%1-25.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.8%2-17.8%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.4%3-13.0%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 50.0% 2.00 -12.0%

Draw 27.0% 31.3% 3.20 -8.2%

Away win 29.0% 30.3% 3.30 -2.6%

Over 2.5 49.6% 46.5% 2.15 +6.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.2% 3.82 +5.8%

BTTS 51.9% 54.6% 1.83 -5.0%

Home O1.5 31.8% 44.1% 2.27 -27.8%

Away O1.5 25.7% 31.4% 3.18 -11.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 10.5%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.9%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.0%

#2 1–1✓ 13.3%

#3 0–0 12.8%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Petare FC1.2

Monagas II0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PETARE FC · PPG 2.33

MONAGAS II · PPG 1.80

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 2.06 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Petare FC (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -12.0%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.2%

Monagas II (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Petare FC face Monagas II in Venezuela - Segunda División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Petare FC a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Monagas II 29%, so Petare FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Petare FC and 0.9 for Monagas II (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Petare FC are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.80 for Monagas II. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Petare FC vs Monagas II Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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