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Club Atletico Barinas vs Yaracuyanos FC Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:30

Club Atletico Barinas

PPG 1.55 · HOME

UPCOMING

Yaracuyanos FC

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+23.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.3%0-24.1%0-32.6%0-4+1.9%1 1-04.3%1-18.2%1-27.8%1-34.9%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.0%2-17.7%2-27.3%2-34.6%2-4+3.4%3 3-02.5%3-14.8%3-24.6%3-32.9%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.5%4+-23.3%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% 34.7% 2.88 +6.6%

Draw 21.1% 29.4% 3.40 -17.0%

Away win 41.9% 47.6% 2.10 -12.0%

Over 2.5 68.4% 55.6% 1.80 +23.1%

Over 3.5 45.0% 35.3% 2.83 +27.4%

BTTS 63.5% 62.1% 1.61 +2.2%

Home O1.5 55.8% 40.8% 2.45 +36.7%

Away O1.5 58.3% 49.0% 2.04 +18.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.5%

A 42% / xG 1.9-1.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.8%

#2 1–1 8.2%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 1–3 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Atletico Barinas1.9

Yaracuyanos FC1.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB ATLETICO BARINAS · PPG 1.55

YARACUYANOS FC · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Club Atletico Barinas (H) 37.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +6.6%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -17.0%

Yaracuyanos FC (A) 41.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Atletico Barinas face Yaracuyanos FC in Venezuela - Segunda División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Atletico Barinas a 37% chance, the draw 21% and Yaracuyanos FC 42%, so Yaracuyanos FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Club Atletico Barinas and 1.9 for Yaracuyanos FC (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Atletico Barinas are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.09 for Yaracuyanos FC. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +40.9%.

Club Atletico Barinas vs Yaracuyanos FC Prediction— Venezuela - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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