Erzgebirge Aue vs Wehen Wiesbaden Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Germany - 3. Liga Regular Season - 35 Erzgebirgsstadion· Aue Saturday, April 25, 2026 12:00

Erzgebirge Aue PPG 1.06

2-2 MISS

Wehen Wiesbaden PPG 1.00

Away· +12.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Erzgebirge Aue face Wehen Wiesbaden in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Erzgebirge Aue a 30% chance, the draw 26% and Wehen Wiesbaden 44%, so Wehen Wiesbaden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.5 for Wehen Wiesbaden (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Erzgebirge Aue are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.00 for Wehen Wiesbaden. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 30.3%

Odds: 2.55 EV: -22.7%

Draw 25.5%

Odds: 3.50 EV: -10.8%

Away 44.2%

Odds: 2.55 EV: +12.7%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.5% Odds: 1.67 -15.7%

Over 3.5 28.5% Odds: 2.65 -24.5%

BTTS 54.2% Odds: 1.50 -18.7%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Erzgebirge Aue

1.20

Wehen Wiesbaden

1.50

Model SuggestionBTTS -18.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -18.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+12.7%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.00)