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Erzgebirge Aue vs Wehen Wiesbaden Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 35 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Erzgebirge Aue

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Wehen Wiesbaden

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-110.1%0-27.6%0-33.8%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.1%1-112.1%1-29.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.8%2-17.2%2-25.4%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.9%3-12.9%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.3% 39.2% 2.55 -22.7%

Draw 25.5% 28.6% 3.50 -10.8%

Away win 44.2% 39.2% 2.55 +12.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 59.9% 1.67 -15.7%

Over 3.5 28.5% 37.7% 2.65 -24.5%

BTTS 54.2% 66.7% 1.50 -18.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.2%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 0–1 10.1%

#3 1–2 9.1%

#4 1–0 8.1%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Erzgebirge Aue1.2

Wehen Wiesbaden1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ERZGEBIRGE AUE · PPG 1.06

WEHEN WIESBADEN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Erzgebirge Aue (H) 30.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -22.7%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.8%

Wehen Wiesbaden (A) 44.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Erzgebirge Aue face Wehen Wiesbaden in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Erzgebirge Aue a 30% chance, the draw 26% and Wehen Wiesbaden 44%, so Wehen Wiesbaden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.5 for Wehen Wiesbaden (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Erzgebirge Aue are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.00 for Wehen Wiesbaden. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Erzgebirge Aue vs Wehen Wiesbaden Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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