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Independiente De Chivilcoy vs El Linqueño Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Independiente De Chivilcoy

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWD

UPCOMING

El Linqueño

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-19.4%0-23.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.3%1-112.1%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-17.8%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.1%3-13.4%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 57.8% 1.73 -18.5%

Draw 31.5% 32.3% 3.10 -2.4%

Away win 21.4% 21.1% 4.75 +1.0%

Over 2.5 38.5% 40.0% 2.50 -3.8%

Over 3.5 18.5% 22.2% 4.50 -10.1%

BTTS 42.4% 42.0% 2.38 +0.9%

Home O1.5 38.4% 45.5% 2.20 -15.5%

Away O1.5 18.8% 20.0% 5.00 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 123 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.4%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.3%

#2 0–0 14.2%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.8%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente De Chivilcoy1.3

El Linqueño0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE DE CHIVILCOY · PPG 1.45

EL LINQUEÑO · PPG 0.55

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

47%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Independiente De Chivilcoy (H) 47.1%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -18.5%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -2.4%

El Linqueño (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente De Chivilcoy face El Linqueño in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente De Chivilcoy a 47% chance, the draw 32% and El Linqueño 21%, so Independiente De Chivilcoy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Independiente De Chivilcoy and 0.7 for El Linqueño (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente De Chivilcoy are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.55 for El Linqueño. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +21.4%.

Independiente De Chivilcoy vs El Linqueño Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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