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Juventud Antoniana vs Kimberley Mar del Plata Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 01:00

Juventud Antoniana

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

Kimberley Mar del Plata

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.9%0-112.0%0-23.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.1%1-112.1%1-23.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.2%2-16.1%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.4%3-12.1%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 55.6% 1.80 -20.3%

Draw 31.7% 34.5% 2.90 -8.1%

Away win 24.0% 20.8% 4.80 +9.1%

Over 2.5 34.6% 38.2% 2.62 -9.3%

Over 3.5 16.6% 20.0% 5.00 -10.2%

BTTS 42.4% 40.8% 2.45 +3.9%

Home O1.5 30.8% 42.0% 2.38 -26.7%

Away O1.5 15.4% 22.2% 4.50 -18.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 123 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.4%

H 44% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.1%

#2 0–0 19.9%

#3 0–1 12.0%

#4 1–1 12.1%

#5 2–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventud Antoniana1.0

Kimberley Mar del Plata0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 16.6%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUD ANTONIANA · PPG 1.40

KIMBERLEY MAR DEL PLATA · PPG 1.30

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

44%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 1.61 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Juventud Antoniana (H) 44.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -20.3%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.1%

Kimberley Mar del Plata (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventud Antoniana face Kimberley Mar del Plata in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventud Antoniana a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Kimberley Mar del Plata 24%, so Juventud Antoniana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Juventud Antoniana and 0.6 for Kimberley Mar del Plata (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventud Antoniana are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.30 for Kimberley Mar del Plata. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +3.9%. This match finished 0-3.

Juventud Antoniana vs Kimberley Mar del Plata Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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