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Guillermo Brown vs San Martín Mendoza Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Losers Stage · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:00

Guillermo Brown

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

UPCOMING

San Martín Mendoza

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.8%0-19.7%0-23.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.4%1-112.0%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.9%2-17.3%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.9%3-13.0%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 50.0% 2.00 -3.2%

Draw 30.7% 34.5% 2.90 -11.0%

Away win 20.9% 27.0% 3.70 -13.6%

Over 2.5 36.0% 38.2% 2.62 -5.7%

Over 3.5 18.3% 20.0% 5.00 -5.1%

BTTS 42.4% 44.4% 2.25 -4.6%

Home O1.5 33.8% 38.2% 2.62 -11.4%

Away O1.5 15.4% 23.1% 4.33 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 123 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.4%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.4%

#2 0–0 15.8%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 2–0 11.9%

#5 0–1 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guillermo Brown1.2

San Martín Mendoza0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GUILLERMO BROWN · PPG 1.70

SAN MARTÍN MENDOZA · PPG 0.70

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guillermo Brown (H) 48.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -3.2%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.0%

San Martín Mendoza (A) 20.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guillermo Brown face San Martín Mendoza in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guillermo Brown a 48% chance, the draw 31% and San Martín Mendoza 21%, so Guillermo Brown are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Guillermo Brown and 0.6 for San Martín Mendoza (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guillermo Brown are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.70 for San Martín Mendoza. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.1%.

Guillermo Brown vs San Martín Mendoza Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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