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Sarmiento de La Banda vs 9 de Julio Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Winners Stage · Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Sarmiento de La Banda

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLWL

UPCOMING

9 de Julio Rafaela

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 48% chance

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 45.0% — a clear edge.

+23.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-15.2%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.3%1-19.9%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.6%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.2%3-16.1%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-14.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.8% 51.8% 1.93 +5.8%

Draw 23.6% 31.1% 3.22 -14.4%

Away win 21.5% 28.4% 3.52 -14.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 45.7% 2.19 +17.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 25.4% 3.94 +24.5%

BTTS 50.2% 51.8% 1.93 -3.1%

Home O1.5 55.8% 45.0% 2.22 +23.9%

Away O1.5 19.7% 28.6% 3.50 -18.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 123 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 3.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.2%

H 55% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 12.8%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarmiento de La Banda1.9

9 de Julio Rafaela0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SARMIENTO DE LA BANDA · PPG 2.10

9 DE JULIO RAFAELA · PPG 0.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.18 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sarmiento de La Banda (H) 54.8%

ODDS 1.93 · IMPLIED 51.8% EV +5.8%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.22 · IMPLIED 31.1% EV -14.4%

9 de Julio Rafaela (A) 21.5%

ODDS 3.52 · IMPLIED 28.4% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento de La Banda face 9 de Julio Rafaela in Argentina - Torneo Federal A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento de La Banda a 55% chance, the draw 24% and 9 de Julio Rafaela 22%, so Sarmiento de La Banda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Sarmiento de La Banda and 0.8 for 9 de Julio Rafaela (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento de La Banda are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.64 for 9 de Julio Rafaela. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +51.5%.

Sarmiento de La Banda vs 9 de Julio Rafaela Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Federal A

Match Preview & Prediction

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